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Wednesday, February 6, 2013

The market looks "very ripe for a meaningful correction"



Last Saturday we profiled this tidbit from 'Alphabet Arnie'


AA told us that:
Terra Nova is like a microcosm for Richmond... and it isn't great.
Well it seems that our other favourite Richmond real estate, James Wong, has also been analyzing the Terra Nova barometer.

On January 21st, Wong blogged about 'the market standoff' in Richmond.
Like in other parts of Greater Vancouver, the real estate market in Richmond can be described as “a stand off” between home sellers and buyers. A typical area to track home prices is Terra Nova, a newer housing sub-division located to the north west corner of Richmond. Terra Nova is a better known by the local residents as one of the most prestigious and expansive neighborhood in Richmond.
And how have Terra Nova home prices done the past few years?
The chart below tracked the home prices for single detached homes with built-up area between 2,600 to 2,900 sq ft. These homes are generally consisted of 5 bedrooms and 3 to 4 full baths, and the lot sizes are from 5,000 to 6,000 sq ft.

Impressive gains to be sure.

At this point Wong gazes into his crystal ball.  What does he see?
The housing market in Richmond the past 8 years had been supported by wealth from new immigrants, not income.

A lot of this is wealth from newly arrived immigrants, although it is difficult to quantify it. Many of these purchases by home buyers the past few years don’t need a mortgage because they have the cash and can buy a house outright. But, with a sharp drop off in buyers, and amble supply of homes for sale, sellers are under pressure to cut their prices.

The possibility of a prostrated decline is real as declining home prices, tightened lending and high prices deter buyers to enter the market.

The supply of rich new residents to Canada is now diminishing, due to the changes happening in the immigration policy for new immigrants. There is a slowing down in people coming to Vancouver, especially foreign residents with a lot of money.

With lack of buying activities, the market looks very ripe for a meaningful correction.
Very ripe for a meaningful correction, eh?

Clearly Wong, an Asian realtor, is not placing much hope in the belief the market will see a Chinese New Year resurgence.

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9 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. How is he racist?
      Wong is merely stating what has been going on from his personal experience as a realtor.

      Delete
  2. Wong's not wrong..finally a realistic assessment

    ReplyDelete
  3. Maybe there will be a B.C. Family Day resurgence in RE

    cheers,

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mr. Wong needs to picked up by the BCREA reprogramming team, he has obviously gone rogue.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So the real question is "When is a correction?" Is it when sellers relent and let go of their properties, or is it when volume is down and properties are not being sold?

    "Ripe for a correction" ignores the disparity between volume and price and recognizes an impending "folding of hands" by sellers when they let go. I am arguing that a significant correction has already happened whether sellers whose heads are in the clouds recognize it or not. Gone are the days when a seller's attitude to his Realtor is "Let's put it out there, we only need one..."
    I am astounded at the asking prices of some of the listings and believe that if sellers understood the prices they would ultimately obtain, in many cases they wouldn't be listing their properties.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you even look at the sale prices of the past 2 years, the asking prices have in some cases gone up by 30% just by the phrase "let's put it out there, we only need one..." The market isn't crashing in any major way, just correcting. Even if prices adjust by 15-20%, it is still a very good market for sellers.

      Delete
  6. If bananas capture a snapshot of this market, they should actually look almost black and a little slimy. You know, the ones that nobody really wants to touch let alone eat.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Being so Wong never felt so Wight.

    ReplyDelete