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Friday, February 1, 2013

Fri Post #2: January 2013 stats - how five large sales triggered a rise in average price



As always, real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky is out with the month end stats on the first of the new month and his efforts are always appreciated.

Low sales mean if a few high prices properties sell, the average price is sure to rise and it appears this has happened in January as Yatkowsky notes "Vancouver’s detached average home price of $1,152,851 is the highest price seen in the last 12 months with the exception of February 2012′s $1,235,244 and March 2012′s $1,155,521."

If you have tracked the daily stats posted on the right, only one day last month saw over 100 sales and most were below 60 per day.  That's abysmal.

As yvr2zrh observes over on Vancouver Condo Info, 5 very high priced homes sold at the beginning of the year in Vancouver.  All of them were large discounts off the original asking price. In one case a Point Grey house sold for $6M less than the asking price.  This came after the home had been on the market for quite a while. 

Take away those top 5 transactions, and the detached average price would seen another drop this month.

Some will try to spin the jump in the stats as evidence the market has bottomed and tell you to "buy now before you miss this opportunity for 'low' prices."

That tune will change when the sharp January jump is replaced by an even sharper drop that brings the average in line with what is going on.

Click on the above chart to enlarge.

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8 comments:

  1. It is great that Larry pumps this out but in true R/E spin he never tells you the reason. Lower sales with a few high end property sales should be noted if this is the reason.

    He just lists the stats and tells everyone to dance in the street..

    ReplyDelete
  2. It would be nice if there were some transparency in the industry where you could actually see the sales and compile & interpret the data yourself. Until that day, I will have no respect for the industry.

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  3. BAD start to the year. 17% drop in sales vs. Jan 2012 and 31% vs Jan 2011. This will get ugly.

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous, where do you get the stats on Jan already?

      17% drop? Can't find anyone with the totals so soon

      Delete
    2. It's on Larry's site. The sales stats are there and if you go back in his archive, you can see that January 2011 had 793 detached sales. I think I neglected to say detached, but overall, the trends are similar.
      http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/02/vancouvers-real-estate-stats-dont-lie/

      Delete
  4. Larry doesn't seem too smart to me...

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  5. It will soon be the Year of the Snake... Realtors and Real Estate Developers should rejoice their Chinese Lunar Year will soon be starting Feb. 10th!

    ReplyDelete
  6. It would be much better if the real estate stats were for median price rather than average so they wouldn't be skewed by a few high priced sales.

    ReplyDelete